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Cubs pay the price for offensive woes in 2018 NL Wild Card

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Pitching. Hitting. Defense.

Baseball is a symphony.

When the winds, the strings and the percussion sections of a symphony are harmonious, beautiful music results. But when thestrings are off, the whole performance is ruined

The Cubs’ symphony was almost perfect, but the silence of their bats cost them a rematch in the Divisional Round with the Milwaukee Brewers, as they fell to the Colorado Rockies 2-1 in the 2018 Wild Card.

Surprising? If this was back in May, yes. Saying the Cubs would play in the Wild Card then would have been heresy. The roster they assembled couldn’t possibly fall behind the Brewers. Heck, even in September such a proclamation would have gotten a double-take. They had a five game lead on the Crew at the beginning of the month. The bats got cold, though, and the Cubs found themselves in the Wild Card.

The Cubs hit 22 home runs in the month of September, the 28th most in the MLB.

They were 27th in on-base percentage, 25th in on-base plus slugging, and 10th in strike-out percentage.

World Series teams don’t do that.

And in the Wild Card round, their offensive woes continued.

Jon Lester was dominant, allowing only one run and four hits in six innings of work. The Cubs’ bullpen did its job as well, shutting out the Rockies for another six innings until the 13th inning.

But, as had been the case many times throughout the year, the offense couldn’t pull it together.

Rockies starter Kyle Freeland had been excellent all season, compiling a 2.85 ERA along the way. He owned the Cubs’ lineup and refused to give up a single earned run through six and two-thirds innings of work. Adam Ottavino, in relief, gave up a Javier Báez double to score Terrance Gore in the eight inning. But that would be the last Cubs’ hit of the night.

“I feel like we’re in a good position for the long haul,” Lester said. “This year sucks. This is a sting right now. But we got to find a way to still look at the positive of things, unfortunately.”

 

Cubs manager Joe Maddon: SRN Broadcasting

These struggles kept them from taking advantage of a great José Quintana start on Monday. They had their chances, but they ultimately couldn’t get runs on the board, and that’s just another reason they had to play Tuesday. These struggles kept them from winning more than one good outings from their starters, and just one of those would have vaulted them to the NL Central throne and into the divisional round.

 

Instead, they had to play a tiebreaker and a Wild Card, and watched two different teams celebrate on their home field in two days. They put forth two runs and nine hits in 22 of the most important innings of their season.

“We need to figure that out in the offseason, next spring training,” manager Joe Maddon said.

The solutions to these problems don’t come with a simple answer. The ‘FIRE MADDON’ movement will grow with this ending, but he isn’t the one hitting into rally-killing double plays. He isn’t the one striking out with runners in scoring position. He managed the game well, putting in pitchers who performed exactly as he planned. This isn’t a problem that can be attributed to one face. It’s a collective inability to execute that needs to be fixed next season. Báez spoke on their skipper after the loss: “We love our manager.”

The National League was wide-open this year, and with all the excitement free agency brings, who knows what the league’s makeup will be. Nobody knows what the next acquisition for the Cubs is, or if there is even one to be made. What we do know is there is a problem on offense. The Cubs played 39 games of only scoring one run or less this season, trailing only the Orioles who have 40. Identifying a problem is half the battle. Now they have to figure out how to address it.

As the saying goes, there’s always next year.

NL Central Still Undecided

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The NL Central race is just that. A race. If we had projected the season’s final outcome when Spring Training ended, most of us would have said that the Cubs would win the Division in a breeze, that the Cardinals had an outside shot at a post season berth and the Brewers would just be another team on everyone’s schedule.

The Brewers surprised us right from the outset. They played well for the first half of the season, overcoming what most of us thought was weak starting pitching to lead the division for a good period of time until the Cubs got their act together. A brief slump by the Brewers was corrected by some very astute deadline deals by the front office when Mike Moustakas and Jonathan Schoop were acquired at/just before the non-waiver deadline and then when Curtis Granderson and Gio Gonzalez were acquired at the August 31 deadline. When those deals were made, I was suspicious that the Brewers may have messed with one of their strong points; chemistry, but their play since September 1 (11-6) has proved me wrong.

The Cardinals were seemingly going nowhere, playing very “un-Cardinal like baseball when they fired Manager Mike Matheny on July 14 with the team 47-46 and in third place in the division. Bench Coach Mike Schildt was appointed Interim Manager and that had all the signs of a “get us to the end of the season when we can hire a permanent replacement”.

Along with some minor deals, contributions from the farm system and some players returning from injury, Schildt was able to turn things around and the Cardinals have gone 37-23 since his taking over to put themselves right back in the NL Central race. The team played so well that on August 28 the “Interim” tag was removed from Shildt’s title.

The Cubs have been the target of both the Brewers and the Cardinals all season. Everyone expected the Cubs to win. The Cubs have made it a lot more difficult than it should have been. They started slowly; perhaps taking teams for granted, then got rolling, but still can’t shake the Brewers and the Cardinals. They may have to finish out the season without the services of shortstop Addison Russell, who was placed on leave by MLB on September 21 as a result of an accusation of domestic violence. MLB continues to investigate, but if the Roberto Osuna situation is anything to use as a barometer, the chances of Russell playing this week are slim.

Make no mistake; all three teams want to win the Division. The prize of staying out of that Wild Card game, a winner take all game is the big carrot. No team wants to find themselves in a “one and done” scenario and also have to use a key member of their starting rotation simply to get to the National League Division Series.

The Cubs are obviously in the driver’s seat. Before the games of September 21, they have a two and a half game lead in the Division, with 10 games remaining, all at Wrigley Field. In succession, the White Sox are in for three, followed by the Pirates for four with the Cardinals providing the opponent for the last three days of the regular season. The Cubs need any combination of Cub wins and/or Brewer losses totalling eight to clinch the Division or any combination of five Cub wins and/or Cardinal losses to clinch the Division. With the White Sox record of 60-92 and the Pirates record of 77-74 it would seem that the most difficult opponent on the home stand will be the final one; the Cardinals.

The Brewers challenge is simple: keep winning. They have no head to head games with the Cubs, but can help their own cause by winning the three game series in St. Louis next week against the Cardinals.

The Cardinals had dug themselves a big hole when Matheny was replaced by Schildt. They got back on track, then hit a bump in the road and now find themselves five and a half games behind the Cubs for the Division lead and three games behind the Brewers for the top Wild Card position. Both the Brewers and the Cardinals also have to keep the Dodgers, Rockies and to some extent the Diamondbacks in their rear view mirrors as it remains likely that the runner-up in the National League West will also still be in the Wild Card hunt at the end of the regular season next weekend.

If all three NL Central teams continue to play at their current pace, the Cubs will finish 95-67, the Brewers 92-70 and the Cardinals 89-73. All would make the post season, assuming that the three NL West teams also continue to play at their current pace.

But, as always, there are variables to consider. All three teams played well in Inter-League play (going 32-22 to date vs. the relatively weak AL Central), but perhaps where the deciding factor lays is in the records within the NL Central. The Cubs are currently 37-32 in the NL Central with seven division games to play. The Brewers are only 34-36 in the NL Central with six games to play within the division. The Cardinals have the best record within the NL Central so far at 40-30 and also have six games left against NL Central opponents. Winning the division is likely too tall an order for the Cardinals, but securing home field advantage for the Wild Card game is still a possibility.

What does all this mean? It means the National League Central is once again the most competitive division in baseball and that we have an exciting week of baseball still to come and we may not know the final outcome of either the Division race or the Wild Card race until next Sunday night, when game 162 is in the books.

Cubs 2018 First Half in Review

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The Cubs wrapped up the first half of 2018 with a series sweep of the San Diego Padres, pushing themselves 2.5 games ahead of the Brewers in the NL Central and commanding the best record in the National League. Unlike years’ past, the Cubs enter the All-Star break riding a wave of momentum, having won seven of their last ten and finding offensive outpours in groves. Javier Báez and Willson Contreras were named to their first All-Star games, and Jon Lester was elected to his fifth.

With the Summer Classic on the horizon, now is a great time to look at the storylines that have followed the Cubs through the first half of 2018.

Lester and the Bullpen Have Picked Up the Rotation’s Slack

The Cubs seemed to check most boxes entering 2018, but perhaps their biggest strength was their rotation. Their staff of Jon Lester, Kyle Hendricks, Yu Darvish, José Quintana and Tyler Chatwood was supposed to be among baseball’s best, but such has not been the case. Tyler Chatwood’s highly touted “stuff” has not come together and has instead unwound to a through-the-roof walk rate of 7.82 BB/9 and a 5.04 ERA. Quintana and Hendricks, though strong as of late, have pitched to ERAs of 3.92 and 3.96, respectively. Mike Montgomery has started nine games and pitched very will to begin his role in Darvish’s absence, but he has an ERA of 6.00 since his first five starts. Jon Lester, on the other hand, has been simply dominant, putting together one of the best seasons of his career in his age-34 season with a 12-2 record and an ERA of only 2.58. The bullpen has also been a strength of the team, ranking amongst baseball’s best in ERA and BAA, while leading in shutouts. Additionally, such was done with injuries to Carl Edwards Jr. and Brandon Morrow, so the bullpen may improve over the next half of the season, especially if another piece is added at the trade deadline.

Yu Darvish’s Injury and Struggles

Jake Arrieta and Yu Darvish were the two big fish of last offseason’s free agent class, and the Cubs elected to sign the latter. One six-year, $126 million contract later, Darvish has been a huge disappointment. Brought in to be the cherry on top of a rotation stacked with potential aces, Darvish has gone 1-3 in eight starts with a dismal 4.95 ERA. His control has been absent as evidenced by his 4.97 BB/9, and his mental toughness has come into question. He found himself on the disabled list with flu-like systems in May and shortly returned there with right tricep tightness. The second stint began May 23rd, and Darvish has not pitched since. The Cubs have shown they’re capable of success despite his absence and struggles, but the team’s investment in him means Darvish must be better.

Production Beyond the Heavy Hitters

The phrase “Bryzzo” has become synonymous with the Cubs’ last few years of success, and for good reason. Anthony Rizzo and Kris Bryant have been the faces of the franchise since being in Chicago, and have been two of the team’s best players every year they’ve been up, with Bryant collecting Rookie of the Year and MVP honors along the way. This season, however, has been different. Rizzo got off to a disastrous start of the season and, after temporarily bouncing back, regressed in the second half of June. While still putting up solid numbers, Bryant has not played up to his MVP potential, and his power numbers have dipped greatly. He spent nearly three weeks on the DL before returning in the San Francisco series. Despite the duo’s uncharacteristic lack of production, the Cubs’ offense has been amongst the MLB’s best, ranking in the top five in runs, hits, batting average and OPS. Javier Báez has been tremendous, slashing .292/.326/.566 with 19 home runs, 72 RBIs and an All-Star selection alongside Willson Contreras. Jason Heyward and Albert Almora have been offensive revelations on top of excellent defensive play, and Kyle Schwarber has been a deadly bat in left field. They are also getting production up and down the lineup from the likes of Ben Zobrist, Addison Russell and Ian Happ. If these contributions continue and Bryant and Rizzo reach their potential, the Cubs’ offense can become even more deadly, and that should scare the whole National League.

Cubs’ Struggles Bite Them vs Bucs, But No Need For Alarm

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The Cubs entered 2018 with lofty expectations. Adding Yu Darvish and Tyler Chatwood in addition to completely overhauling your bullpen will do that. While Darvish and Chatwood ha

Kyle Hendricks in his postgame press conference

ve disappointed to this point in the season, the Cubs have, for the most part, lived up to their billing as one of the best teams in the National League. They have the second-best team ERA in baseball (Second only to a historically dominant Astros’ rotation), the highest team OBP and the third-highest team batting average. More importantly, they’ve been winning. They have the second-best record in the NL behind the Milwaukee Brewers and are in hot pursuit of overtaking them, having won eight of their last nine entering Sunday. Jon Lester looks like his 2016 self and even said the team as a whole has the same feel as 2016.

The Cubs haven’t been bulletproof, however. Unlike 2016, the Cubs’ struggles are more apparent and are beyond one bullpen addition. While they’ve generated hits, they haven’t consistently converted on them, leading the MLB in runners left in scoring position per game with 4.18. Their team batting average with runners in scoring position is a lowly .238 with a 22.77% strikeout rate. While on the surface pitching appears to be a strength, there are concerns with the rotation outside Jon Lester.

Kyle Hendricks was expected to be the ace of the Cubs’ loaded bullpen, but he entered Sunday with a 4-5 record, a 3.59 ERA and 12 home runs allowed (He allowed 17 all last season). José Quintana has only gone more than six innings twice, and Darvish and Chatwood have been rendered to ineffective.

The Cubs have managed to get away with their struggles on the mound thanks to their ironclad bullpen, a unit that is third in the majors with a 2.34 ERA. It is also a unit that has seen action in every game, as no Cubs pitcher has thrown a complete game this season, with seven-inning performances being a rarity.

“Mentally it was better. Mechanics, I’m just fighting myself,” Hendricks said on his share of struggles. “Just not repeating it, so that’s really where the problem’s at.”

With various underlying issues at play, Sunday’s game against the Pirates was a culmination of them, and those issues reared their ugly heads from the beginning with a Josh Harrison leadoff home run off Hendricks. Hendricks settled in for the most part after Harrison’s home run, allowing only two more hits in five innings of work. With runners at first and second in the bottom of the fifth inning, Tommy La Stella pinch-hit for Hendricks, only to ground into a double play.

“That’s part of the game right there,” Hendricks said. “Got a chance to get on the board and you got to take it. Unfortunately, it didn’t work out but nine times out of ten with Tommy [La Stella] that’s gonna work.”

The fifth-inning wasn’t the Cubs’ only chance to take advantage of runners in scoring position. Only down one and with a chance to seize momentum in the bottom of the third inning, they were unable to convert with runners at second and third. In total, the Cubs left five runners on base today, and the offense was absent for much of this series as they only produced six runs in total. Joe Maddon made sure to keep the series win in perspective, though, saying, “Two out of three ain’t bad. Anybody that is not into two out of three really needs to evaluate their baseball sensibilities.”

He’s right. Even with Sunday’s loss, the Cubs have played good baseball.

Chili Davis’s hitting philosophy has taken time to set in, as should be expected, but its intended results are beginning to take shape: They’ve averaged 4.7 walks per game since May 6th, 5.4 runs per game since May 5th and, perhaps most surprisingly, Jason Heyward entered Sunday hitting .386 with a .945 OPS in ten games since May 29th. And, above all else, the Cubs have been winning. They are now 12-4 in 16 games since May 25th, good enough for the second-best record in the National League.

If anything, their display of winning games despite struggles is a positive sign; it shows they can win in spite of some poor play. If 12-4 isn’t a display of their best baseball, then even greater things should come when that potential is realized.

Twitter: @crbevins11

Hear audio from Joe Maddon, Kyle Hendricks and Anthony Rizzo

Jon Lester continues quiet dominance in win against Pittsburgh

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The MLB has seen tremendous pitching to this point in the year, with four pitchers putting up an ERA of less than 2.o and several more following with impressive pitching. The typical big names of Max Scherzer and Corey Kluber are there, and young arms like Aaron Nola and Luis Severino are in the mix. There is one name, though, that doesn’t fit either young-stud or regular Cy Young-contender archetypes. That name is Jon Lester.

Now, that’s not to say Lester was written off from the Cubs’ rotation or that he was expected to be ineffective. But with an offseason in which the Cubs brought in such names as Yu Darvish and Tyler Chatwood, the ongoing emergence of Kyle Hendricks, and the hype around a bounce-back year from Jose Quintana, it was easy for Lester to get lost in the shuffle. Unlike the more attention-grabbing pitchers such as Scherzer and Severino, he isn’t blowing away the radar gun, nor is he dazzling spectators with double-digit strikeout performances. What Jon Lester has done, however, is put his team in the best possible situation to succeed, day-in and day-out, pitching to a record of 7-2 and a season ERA of 2.22.

Saturday’s outing against the Pirates was just an extension of that success.

Lester did not allow a run in his previous seven-inning start against the Mets on Monday and only gave up two hits. Saturday’s performance was much of the same as he threw seven more innings of no-run ball while surrendering only one hit on an Austin Riley triple in the third inning. He is the first Cubs pitcher to have consecutive starts of seven scoreless innings and two or fewer hits allowed since Oval Overall in 1909, and he is now 5-1 with a 1.63 ERA in eight starts since April 30. The kind of season he’s had is atypical for a pitcher his age, but manager Joe Maddon had insight on how Lester has managed to defy Father Time.

“Great delivery. He’s very athletic,” Maddon said. “It’s repetition of delivery, it’s knowing exactly what he wants to do. He doesn’t come out of his lane… More changeups, but primarily I think a strong point is his repetition of delivery.”

In terms of performance, Lester has taken a huge step forward from last season. He is on pace to exceed last year’s win total of 13 and his ERA has gone down from 4.33 to 2.22. Through 13 starts last season, he was 3-4. This year, he is 7-2.

Jon Lester during his postgame press conference

“I think the biggest thing is I feel good,” Lester said postgame. “Compared to last year with where I was at, body wise, mechanically, just kind of everything never really synced up.

The Cubs have seemed to set into a groove as of late, picking up their fourth consecutive win on Saturday to raise their record to 13 games above .500. They’re 12-3 in their last 15 games and have a +33 run differential in the same span of time. Anthony Rizzo has refound himself after a disastrous start to his season, and in his last ten games, the much-maligned Jason Heyward is batting .400 with five extra-base hits and six RBIs. While some concerns over offensive consistency still linger (Not to mention the question marks around Yu Darvish and Tyler Chatwood), the Cubs seemed to have found their stride as of late. Starting pitching has been solid, the offense has been producing and the bullpen has been lights-out.

“I think we’re back to ’16,” Lester said. “I think it took everybody a little bit last year to recover and get back to normal. You know, when you come off that high of game seven, you’re looking for that high… you’re trying to get up for every game and it’s just not there.”

For the Cubs, the goal has to be to continue their success. Consistency questions are still a little concerning, but a win like today shows they can still win games in spite of offensive struggles. They sit only a half game behind the NL Central-leading Brewers, who also have the best record in the NL. The Crew have fallen into a bit of a slump, going 5-5 in their last ten games and the Cubs have taken advantage by going 8-2 in their last ten, giving themselves a prime opportunity to seize first place when they square off for a three-game series this Monday. If they can ride their recent momentum, the Cubs can potentially have the best record in the NL by Wednesday.

Twitter: @crbevins11

Hear audio from Joe Maddon and Jon Lester:

 

Cubs Pick Up Win Despite Poor Outing From Chatwood

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Baseball is weird.

Sometimes, one misplayed ball decides a game. Sometimes, a pitcher with a 4.16 lifetime ERA throws a perfect game.

Sunday night’s Cubs-Giants game falls firmly into the category of weird.

Whether it was Pablo Sandoval (Yes, that Pablo Sandoval) legging out an infield single fielded by Addison Russell, Sandoval making a diving stop at second base (No, this isn’t a prank), or Anthony Rizzo beating the shift by nailing umpire Cory Blaser in the leg, the first inning alone was loaded with a highlight reel of oddities.

Unfortunately for the Cubs, Tyler Chatwood’s inability to prevent runners from taking free bases is no longer weird. With Yu Darvish unexpectedly back on the DL, Chatwood took the mound for a balmy Sunday night game at the Friendly Confines.

For a guy brought in as the finishing touch on the masterpiece that was to be the Cubs’ bullpen, Chatwood has been anything but reliable. Sure, his spin rate is one of his best-known traits. He was brought in because he had the kind of stuff few MLB pitchers have. Another trait few pitchers have is a walk-rate even close to Chatwood’s. Entering Sunday, Chatwood boasted a walk-rate of 7.88 walks per nine innings. The next two highest are held by the Padres’ Bryan Mitchell and the White Sox’ Lucas Giolito, who sit at 6.86 and 6.80 walks per nine innings, respectively.

So, Tyler Chatwood’s early struggles were not met with great surprise on Sunday. 2.2 innings, five walks, three earned runs and three mound visits into the game, his night was done.

Tyler Chatwood’s Postgame Press Conference

“You just don’t know how you’re gonna get through that whole thing,” Manager Joe Maddon said on Chatwood’s outing. “I thought he got a little bit better toward the end… We have work to do, he has work to do. I’m not saying by any means giving up, I really believe in this fella. The stuff is that good.”

Chatwood’s struggles and the on-field abnormalities meant the Cubs needed a team win. And they got it. Behind RBIs from six different batters, 13 total hits and a shut-down performance from the bullpen, the Cubs navigated through a treacherous beginning  and ended the night with an 8-3 victory. One of the newer faces on the Cubs, Randy Rosario, picked up the win and received specific praise from Maddon.

 

“This kid threw well a couple days ago when we had him. I liked him in Spring Training, he’s done a great job in triple-A this year… We don’t win the game without him today.”

Sunday’s story is not complete, however, without mentioning Javier Báez’s excellent performance.

The Cubs tied the score in the first inning and kept it that way entering the bottom of the fourth. The aforementioned Rosario led off the inning with a walk and was advanced to third by a double from Albert Almora Jr. Báez stepped to the plate with an opportunity to leave his impact on the scoreboard.

El Majo did not disappoint.

The beloved infielder put the energy back into a distraught Wrigley crowd by sending a home run into the right-field bleachers, rounding the bases and entering the dugout to the tune of a thunderous chant of “JAVY! JAVY! JAVY!” The 25-year-old retook the National League lead in RBIs with a season total of 42, and now has a slash line of .266/.298/.574. When asked about retaking the RBI lead, Báez shed his flashy on-field persona and remained humble about the feat.

“To be honest, I’m just trying to stay away from [focusing on stats]. Every time I play with my stats I get in a slump,” he said postgame. “It’s still a long season, you know, we’ll see how numbers are in September and October.

“If you watched him in batting practice, he was just killing the right side of the field,” Maddon said on Báez’s performance. “If he can just stay with that mentality all the time there’s no telling how good he could be at the plate.”

It’s almost June and the Cubs are still in search for consistency. Perhaps Sunday’s battle through adversity is the spark they needed to become the machine they were expected to be.

Hear audio from Joe Maddon, Tyler Chatwood and Javier Báez.

Twitter: @crbevins11

Indescribable and Impossible: Cubs in the Playoffs

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Indescribable and Impossible: Cubs in the Playoffs:

An eerily empty Cubs scoreboard
An eerily empty Cubs scoreboard

When you sit in the Chicago Cubs press conference room following a game, you can hear a whole host of different sounds.  You can tell when a faucet is turned on somewhere, as the pipes whistle, when the only air conditioning in the entire stadium is turned on, and when Kris Bryant hits a walk-off home run, you can not only hear, but feel the hundred year-old stadium brace under the pressure of 40-thousand-something fans vibrating with delight.  I’ve felt that.  I’ve felt the pure delight Chicagoans young and old have exuded with in response to the fact that for once, it feels like, for once, their team is freakin fun to watch.  For once!  For once, in the bottom of the ninth, the benefit of walking six blocks to their car to beat only about half of the traffic, doesn’t outweigh seeing what Addison Russell or Kyle Schwarber or Jorge Soler might do to try and win them a game.  I’ve been there, I’ve seen it.  I’ve also seen what it has been like for old farts who have bought season tickets, grumpily, year after year, decade after decade, only to see 50 or 60 or 70-win seasons, who threaten every year to sell them.  I have seen those same loyal, grumpy old men this past year religiously check ESPN, fiddling with their phones, to check the scores and standings of a team littered with 20-somethings who nothing of that pain of a Cubs fan. Those same old, jaded, embittered men who by August in the seasons past, whispered, “the Cubs suck,” to themselves and their daughters after series of disappointing and embarrassing losses.  I’ve seen all that.  You’ve seen all that.  But what I’ve never seen, and what I am still trying to convince myself actually occurred is what the Cubs did last Tuesday, what happened last Tuesday.

 

Clark Street following a Cubs playoff win
Clark Street following a Cubs playoff win

Now the Wild Card game wasn’t that surprising.  Jake Arrieta was Jake Arrieta.  Not that it’s not incredible, not that it’s not amazing what he has been doing, but by now, people are simply expecting incredible out of him, fair or otherwise.  Clark street filled with people, the bars loved it, playing walk-up songs, blowing the horn, popping champagne.  But again, that was mostly Jake Arrieta.  It was surprising that Schwarber and Fowler were the sources of offense, and not the de facto “faces of the franchise” Rizzo and Bryant, but all in all that win went to Arrieta.  And we’ve seen Clark street a mess with the Hawks fans before, Bulls fans, and all sorts of other viewers of big Chicago evenings and events, so it wasn’t all that different.

In terms of optics, Tuesday, wasn’t discernable from the previous Wednesday, when the Cubs took down the second best team in baseball.  But in terms of feel, the two were a world apart.

On Tuesday, the Chicago Cubs, in game four of a best-of-five series beat the St. Louis Cardinals.  I repeat, on Tuesday, the Chicago Cubs beat, in the playoffs, to move on, at home, the St. Louis Cardinals.  The St. Louis Cardinals.  Yeah, those guys, the bane of the Cubs existence (besides themselves), for as long as they have been in existence.  The frickin St. Louis Cardinals.  See? I’m still trying to convince myself.  

Regardless of your sentiment for the Cubs, if you are a fan of sports, the momentousness of this feat is something downright fun to watch.  The loveable loser, the baby brother not capable of anything, slayed the dragon.  A bunch 20-somethings who knew and know no better exercised the demons of those loyal to the Cubbie blue.  

It was as if someone was directing the whole thing.  The white W towels were distributed as fans walked in the gates.  Stars like Kerry Wood, Billy Williams, John Cusack, Eddie Vedder, Rob Manfred, and even Ron Santo, Ernie Banks, Harry Caray (in spirit) were all in attendance, looking on with as much enthusiasm as the school teacher next to them.  Fans’ stomachs both fluttered with excitement and flipped with dread-filled anticipation.  Tears leaked from the eyes of men who’ve only cried once or twice in their lifetimes.  And children sat and bounced with excitement, not fully understanding what they were witnessing.  Upon seeing Hammel give up two runs in the first, few were discouraged.  It wasn’t unlike Hammel to do such a thing. The Cubs have an unfortunate penchant for giving up early runs.  He made up for it when Maddon made the surprising decision to keep him in to bat in the bottom of the second.  Driving in Starlin Castro with a single, Hammel himself eventually scored along with Kyle Schwarber off of a three-run, first pitch homer from Javier Baez.  As the lead swung from favoring the Cards by two to the Cubs by two, off a shot from the rookie everyone expected one from sooner or later, towels were whipped so hard, half the fans probably lost them.  As gladly as Cubs fans cheered when they scored, the equally happily jeered when the ump asked for the ball back from John Lackey, as it was the second time in the postseason that there had been questions about him doctoring the ball.  “Lack-ey, Lack-ey, Lack-ey” chants rang through the stadium.  After taking out the incredibly frustrated Hammel, Travis Wood eventually came in and later gave up the lead, few breaths were held. And rightly so.  The following inning, Anthony Rizzo clocked one, giving the Cubs the go-ahead run.  Even with all the back and forth, the loudest shot was yet to come.  Leaning back in his armchair, bobbing to a rest in his stance staring right field and Kevin Siegrist down, Kyle Schwarber squared up and smacked the ball straight out of the park with a “clock” like the sound made when a driver meets a golf ball. Gaping silence, and then a volcanic eruption of noise followed.  In the manner in which legends, myths, and lore are composed, the homerun ball wasn’t discovered until the following day, when a Cubs employee was sent to retrieve it.  Upon finding it atop the new right field scoreboard, the Cubs decided to put it on a pedestal, encase it plexiglass and leave it there throughout the postseason.  Upon Rondon recording the final out, the home Wrigley crowd, for the first time, celebrated at home.  The street was absolutely filled with Cubs fans outside the stadium, on Clark street, as the few Cardinals fans in the stadium covered their red with their coats swiftly and quietly excused themselves.  The electric awe that gently reverberated following the win throughout the stadium, and throughout all of Wrigleyville, as the team celebrated, their families came on the field, and fans stood around, unwilling to stop basking in the possibility that what had just happened was real.  Chicago was soaked in it.  

Fans congregating outside Wrigley Field following their victory over the St. Louis Cardinals
Fans congregating outside Wrigley Field following their victory over the St. Louis Cardinals

And ever since, in the week following, that is all that Cubs fans have known.  #WeAreGood, the Cubs are even telling themselves.  They too, are realizing that, convincing themselves that indeed, it might be possible, that they are good.  The team with one of the best batting averages in the majors with runners in scoring position, the team feels nothing but clutch in big-time situations.  It feels as though the Cubs are almost destined, have no possibility except the impossible, to win, for it feels that is all they know right now is to win.  

As Joe Maddon put it, “Everything came together at the right time-it’s indescribable.” Every Cubs fan hopes and impossibly believes that perhaps, this time, for once, everything will come together, and it will be beyond indescribable.  

Arrieta is the Cubs’ Guy to Lean On

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Arrieta on his body of work "it's good."
Arrieta on his body of work “it’s good.”

Jake Arrieta’s walkup song is Lean On by Major Lazer and DJ Snake. Listen above.

“Do you recall, not long ago
We would walk on the sidewalk Innocent, remember?
All we did was care for each other
But the night was warm
We were bold and young
All around the wind blows
We would only hold on to let go
Blow a kiss, fire a gun
We need someone to lean on
Blow a kiss, fire a gun
All we need is somebody to lean on
Blow a kiss, fire a gun
We need someone to lean on
Blow a kiss, fire a gun
All we need is somebody to lean on”

That’s who Jake Arrieta is.  He is the guy the Cubs can lean on.  And they need it.  A squad filled with youth, full of life and energy needs that guy.  The guys who can keep it all together.  The guy who is unfazed by the past and is able to step into the present.  The guy who sets the mental and physical fitness standard on the club.  The guy who focuses on his swing too. The guy who doesn’t let the Windy City and the Cubbie Blue get to him. The guy who shows up early on days he’s not pitching. The guy who insists on having his wife and children accept his honors with him at Wrigley following his no-hitter. The guy who takes things seriously, but not too seriously.  His teammates love him for it, his manager loves him for it, the fans love him for it.  He has been the guy for all of them to lean on.

Jake Arrieta’s season, first half, and especially his second half has been one of dominance.  He put up very good numbers in 2014, numbers that most said he wouldn’t be able to replicate. After proving them wrong, getting off to a good start in the first half of the season, he was snubbed at the all-star break, though it should be noted that the competition for all-star pitching was of high and contentious quality.  Proving a majority wrong once again, Arrieta posted the best ERA in baseball in the second half of the season, an incredible .75. In addition, he has ended the season with 12 consecutive wins.

Arrieta has a remarkable stat sheet. The wins: he is 22-6, with the most wins in all of baseball.  Twenty wins is a feat, one he graciously completed under the home lights and vibrant crowd of Wrigley.  Not phoning in two subsequent starts and getting to the 22 number is just exceptional.  The ERA: 1.77.  This is not only second-best in the league this year to Greinke’s 1.68, but like Greinke’s, it is one of the lowest in the last 25 years. The strikeouts: 236.  Arrieta is second in the National League to Clayton Kershaw’s outrageous 294 strikeouts.  Other stats: He and Kershaw lead the National League and are second only to Dallas Keuchel in innings pitched with 229 over 32 starts.  He has the second highest (to Greinke) winning percentage, of .786 in the majors-but Arrieta has two more starts and 7 more decisions.  He has four complete game shutouts, the most in the majors.  He’s only given up 5.9 hits over nine innings, the best in the majors.  He and Greinke have the most quality starts over the season.  However, he does have the longest streak of quality starts this year, at 20, edging Kershaw’s total last year.  Oh, and Arrieta has a no-hitter against the team Greinke and Kershaw play for by the way.  Don’t forget that one on the resume.

The marquee stats are impressive.  The ERA, the wins, the strikeouts, the ones that are really used to determine the Cy Young award are quality.  However in a race as close as this one, see below,

Kershaw: ERA 2.16, W/L 16-7, SO 294
Greinke: ERA 1.68, W/L 18-3, 192
Arrieta: ERA 1.77, W/L 22-6, 236

a couple things happen.  First, the question as to who is best all around and dominant is asked.  Arrieta is either first or second in the NL in all three categories.  Both the Dodgers making bids are third or worse in one of the three major categories.  The question that follows is as to what the award, in this case, the Cy Young, is supposed to represent.  It is defined many ways, but one definition applicable for the voters is the “annual award given to the most outstanding pitcher in each of the major leagues.” Now Arrieta is arguably the best/most well-rounded, and also arguably the most outstanding, just see the paragraph above.  There are a great deal of categories, almost all of them, in which Arrieta stands at or above the two Dodgers as well.  There are a number of “league bests” and “majors bests” that he has that the other two don’t.  These just pad his bid for the Cy Young for voters looking for some other deciding factors.  

Arrieta is a large reason for the Cubs success this season, and not just in the 22 wins he has accumulated.  In addition, Arrieta is also a large reason for the Cubs never hitting any slumps or prolonged speed bumps.  The Cubs never dropped more than five in a row this season, and allowed themselves to be swept in a series only twice.  Arrieta stands as a bright spot every five starts, regardless of what else is going on around him and the club.  This is evident in his ability to go 10-1 after a Cubs loss over the 2015 regular season.  So not only is he good, but he is consistently good under pressure, when he is the only thing stopping a young, mentally green, potentially vulnerable squad from spiraling into a tailspin of a losing streak, one that certainly can’t be afforded in a powerhouse of a division like that of the NL Central.

Though, it is all but announced to most that Bryce Harper will be named NL MVP with his impressive offensive stat line.  The all-star and young-blood, new, attractive face of baseball carries a .331 average (2nd in the NL), 42 home runs (tied for first in the NL), 99 RBIs (tied for fourth), and 117 runs.  However, again, if one thinks about how “MVP” is defined, what is often used in interpretation is the value, hence most valuable part of MVP, but how much value can you possess when your team doesn’t make it to the playoffs?  Not that Harper isn’t incredibly dominant, talented, or even the “best player” in the national league at this given moment, but rather, even with his talent, has he been as vital and successful in contributing to his team’s success as Arrieta has and is (and there still is an is because his team is headed to the playoffs)?  Single-handedly fighting off slumps, responsible, at least half responsible for 22 of his club’s 96 wins, and just out-pitching batters and situations he faces in the most high-stakes, pressurized time (down the stretch), in the toughest division (NL Central), and uplifting, a “cursed” (durn billy goat be damned) team, all sound like very, very, valuable things to me. It’s up to the voters, again, to decide if he is the most valuable in the National League.

Two things are for sure:

It is sure as hell nice to see good things happening to good people.  Good fathers and good husbands and good teammates with good work ethic and discipline don’t always see the success Arrieta is seeing.

Regardless of his ability to claim one or two regular season awards, Arrieta has been everything for the Cubs.  The epitome of a “rock.”  No matter if it is someone blowing a kiss, or firing a gun, Arrieta is the Cubs’ some one to lean on.  

 

It’s (Un)official: Cubs Season a Success

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It is, unofficially, safe to say that regardless as to how the rest of the season goes, the Cubs have had a successful season.  With the understanding that the team was built for success further down the road, most likely in the 2016 and 2017 seasons, the Cubs have done enough to garner such an evaluation.  However, with the overwhelming success the Cubs have had this summer, it appears that everyone from fan to front-office man for the Cubs could not have projected this level of success.

JoeMaddonTheoEpsteinFirst, one can take a glimpse at the roster. The big names most expected to be everyday contributors surprised many by not being there, due to injury or other extenuating circumstances.  Baez has been in triple-A most of the year and upon being called up in early September, has done well, but still lacks a robust home run line many thought would accompany him on his trip from Iowa. Luckily, his strikeout totals have not followed him either.  Soler has been hurt and is questionable to return for the playoffs.  His season also has been overshadowed by the shocking success of the rest of the roster.  Though the belief in Starlin Castro had begun to wane in the minds of fans, usually due to a citation of the lack of discipline he has displayed at times throughout his career, few thought he would struggle as much as he has.  However, the unexpected success on both sides of the ball from Addison Russell has picked up the slack, allowing a motivated Castro to step up in pinch-hitting and second base spots.  Though many were excited about Rizzo, few thought his strikeout totals would be so much lower, his RBI counts would be so much higher, and his physicality would improve at such a clip, as evident from his increase in stolen bases and growing defensive prowess. Chris Coghlan’s resurgence since his rookie of the year performance in 2009, along with his positional flexibility has pleasantly surprised many as well. To the surprise of many fans who knew nothing but the name “Bryant” for the first half of the season, whom also, without a doubt, has made big-time plays in big-time moments, Kyle Schwarber has impressed, heavily.  His maturity at the plate combined with his willingness to play a new position, Schwarber has blown away many Northsiders of both the devout and casual persuasions. The biggest shocker though, has been of course, Jake Arrieta.  Lester was supposed to be the ace.  Arrieta was supposed to be good, but most students of the game and of the Cubs, thought that he could still be good but it would be nearly impossible to continue his success from last season. The fact that he has thrown a no-hitter is a(n amazing) thing in itself.   The fact that he has the most wins in the National League and has a sub-two ERA are things of a different type, a Cy Young (at least conversationally) type.  

When looking for other reasons as to how the Cubs have recorded success, you can look at the schedule.  The team has won almost twice as many series as they have lost. In addition, they have swept seven opponents including the likes of potential playoff squad, the New York Mets (swept them twice, once in a four-game series), their divisional rival Milwaukee Brewers (twice, once in a four-game sweep), and defending World Series champs, the San Francisco Giants (four-game sweep), four times in which they completed a four-game sweep. But equally impressive is the fact that they have only been swept twice all season.  Furthermore the Cubs have had many little win-streaks of anywhere from four to nine games throughout the season with their longest losing streak totalling five.  Despite their ability to stack wins, the Cubs really haven’t been streaky in their losses.  The boys in blue haven’t collectively been in a legitimate slump this season, despite a roster filled with relative inexperience.  A testament to Joe Maddon’s managerial talent, the Cubs resistance to stringing losses together is an especially impressive feat due to fact that the pressure is always on in the NL Central.   

This aversion to spiraling out of control could help them weather any storms that come their way in the playoffs. The problem presumably will be winning the one-game playoff. The hope is that Arrieta will make that if not easy, at least a little easier. If the Cubs do fall short though, that’s what it will be called, “falling short.”  Things will have “gotten in the way” of their success.  The Cubs overachieving narrative, juxtaposed with the youth of their roster makes them a squad with potential, which is why this year has been and will continue to be identified as a successful one, regardless of the final outcome.  Because this is a team with “potential.” People weren’t expecting this, so the pleasant surprise is enough success to appease most involved parties.  The unfortunate flipsides of potential, prospects, and unexpected success are the expectations that accompany them.  With the pressure on from defending World Series champs, good teams like the Nationals, and divisional monsters like Pittsburg and St. Louis, the Cubs know something about stress.  But the stress of being booed for flyouts, one-run innings, and being on the other side of all those one-run, or walk-off decisions, might be a different kind of pressure than the Cubs are used to, one from an expecting fanbase.   So for now, the Cubs will bask in their success this season, but one hopes that Maddon, Epstein, and Hoyer continue to be as savvy as they have been, as they have their biggest season in at least a decade coming up next year, one characterized by expectations galore.  

Inexperience At Its Best….and Its Worst: The Cubs Down the Stretch

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The perfect example of the culture change in Chicago came on a Monday evening.  The Cubs gave up their three run lead to fall behind the Rockies one run, 8-7 in the top of the ninth.  With Dexter Fowler on first, two outs, up came Kris Bryant to bat.  For everyone working in the ballpark, who pined for their beds after the boys in blue gave up a 3-run lead in the top of the 9th, rather than those enjoying or playing the game, there were no thoughts of a walk, single, or even double.  KB’s at-bat was either going to be tallied as a K or a HR.  When Axford dealt a poorly placed breaking ball for his second pitch to Bryant, the recently struggling rookie third basemen teed off.  His shot to just right of center led to a lemon lime gatorade bath (which one can be nearly sure he much preferred over fellow Vegas native and blossoming talent, Bryce Harper’s chocolate sauce fate).

That’s what youth is, that’s what the Cubs are and are going to be in the playoffs.  Either a strikeout or a home run in the bottom of the ninth, two outs, winning run at the plate.  The Cubs have the potential to knock this roster experiment out of the park or watch it pass by and try again, next game, next season.  

Inexperience is not an excuse.  Or rather,  it’s the wrong articulation. “Inexperience” is a way of explaining a youthful group’s inability to perform in higher pressure situations.

Kris Bryant hasn’t been in high pressure situations before, at least not on this stage.  Kyle Schwarber is good, but he’s never felt this kind of pressure before.  Russell is a fielding maven and has been getting significantly better in his low pressure slot at the plate, but he has never been on the big stage either. Soler’s new to the scene. Rizzo, he’s killing it but he’s never been to the playoffs, which have a totally different feel.  Neither have Castro or Arrieta.  There are veterans there, who have been on that stage, including Lester, Ross, Motte, and Heron. There are veteran journeymen like Montero, Coghlan, Denorfia, Fowler, and Hammel. The vets, in theory, bolster the youthful squad with “experience” and “wisdom.”  In reality though, it all comes down to the ability to perform.  

Rookies and prospects are given the benefit of the doubt when they fail in new, big-time scenarios, veterans choke.  The point is, anyone can fail or succeed in such scenarios.  While experience may be an asset for veterans in those situations, at the same time, young players go to the plate with a sense of not knowing any better. They get behind the plate and just battle or in the field and just play. They hear things about the pressure or the situation or the stage but don’t really know what to do with it and so just go out and do what they do. Either way, its about either using the pressure to one’s advantage or not letting it get to them in order to perform.  Thus, if the Cubs fail in this postseason, it won’t be termed as that, it will be rather that something got in the way of their success.  The club is too young to have failed, they just don’t have all the pieces in play yet.  

Furthermore, with the exodus of the era of players highlighted by names like Derek Jeter, baseball in general, this season, with the exceptions of AJ Burnett, pre-injury, Mark Buehrle, Alex Rodriguez, and Albert Pujols, is more focused on the youth. Almost every other big name is 25 years old or younger.  Joc Pederson, Mike Trout, Bryce Harper, Anthony Rizzo, Giancarlo Stanton, Manny Machado, Sonny Gray, Noah Syndergaard, Gerrit Cole, and those like them.  In a period where baseball loves young stars, it appears that the Cubs may be both born under and uplifted by a constellation of them.  

From their young Starlins and starlets, the Cubs have their ups like Kyle Schwarber hitting both game tying and eventual game winning home runs in his hometown of Cincinnati within his first couple days up in the bigs.  Anthony Rizzo, after weathering a rough patch, blasts home runs in four consecutive games or climbing the biggest roll of tinfoil ever made, over a wall and making arguably the best defensive play to grace SCTop10 all season long.  Starlin Castro walking off with a hit at home in extras on back to back nights in Ohio after being demoted to the 7-hole.  Addison Russell compiling a highlight reel of web gems at short while also boosting his batting average in the second half. There’s a 1.02 combined ERA in 10 consecutive starts from Jake Arrieta who is putting up video game numbers as of late.  

And they also have their lows.  Starlin Castro is seriously struggling at the plate, so much so that he has been demoted to the bench, batting sub .240 for the majority of the season.  Kris Bryant, appearing to fall back into habits of his first game up in the majors, is swinging at a lot, a lot of pitches he shouldn’t.  The club, getting swept by the league worst Phillies immediately following the All-Star Break.  They go through bouts of bad or no hitting, lackluster pitching, and unfortunate fielding.  

Joe Maddon is playing a major role, a fun uncle or cool dad figure, mentoring them through their ups and downs, always cool, calm, collected, and focusing on the positives or constructively assessing the areas for improvement.  Pensive, laid-back, and detail-oriented, Maddon plays a tremendous role in their previous and potential success.  

In addition to the somewhat surprising fact that the Cubs have the fourth best record in baseball, their ability throughout this season to come back, close, and simply not gift wrap wins to other teams has been tremendous compared to years past. They lead the league in one-run decisions and walk-off wins. But beyond that, to put it in a metric that Chicagoans can better understand: fewer people, much fewer people leave when the score is 3-2, 6-5,  9-8 or even 5-3 in the bottom of the ninth, god forbid. It’s finally exciting baseball in the Cubbie blue pinstripes.  

What will surely be determined either down the stretch or in the playoffs, is whether or not the Cubs will realize their potential or learn from their insufficiencies.  And essentially, what will eventually lead to the possible faltering of the Cubs is their inability to be consistently good.  They might have great moments and they might have bad moments but being consistently good may be the issue.  They have the talent to stick with anybody through 8 ½ innings, but down the stretch, when it counts, really counts, at the bottom of the ninth with two outs, for the win, will they belt a home run or just strike out?