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2018 Bears @ 49ers preview

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The newly crowned 2018 NFC North Champion Chicago Bears will be in San Francisco this week to face the 49ers. The 49ers carry with them unfamiliar momentum, having won their past two games. The Bears will play for seeding this week, with a first-round bye still very much in play after the Rams loss to the Eagles. A win over the 49ers could end up as the deciding factor between the two seed and the three seed.

Controlling Kittle

The 2017 Draft, the year where John Lynch was thought to have fleeced Ryan Pace, has yielded poor results two years later. If there is a diamond to be found in the rough, however, it has been tight end George Kittle. Kittle, who served a mostly limited role last year, has blossomed in his sophomore campaign, being selected to his first Pro Bowl after hauling in 72 receptions for 1,154 yards. He moves exceptionally well for a player his size (6’4, 250 pounds) and has become the go-to option for 49ers quarterback Nick Mullens.

“I think they do a good job, and Kyle [Shanahan] in particular, of understanding how teams are playing certain coverages,” defensive coordinator Vic Fangio said. “And maybe where the weaknesses are or where they can pop a guy free. And they’ve been able to do that here lately, more than a few times.”

One of Kittle’s biggest advantages over competition is the guy calling his plays. Head coach Kyle Shanahan has kept his offense steady (13th in yards) despite the absence of Jimmy Garoppolo. He throws a heavy dose of play-action at opposing defenses, giving his receivers an extra step against hesitant defenders preoccupied with the run. Kittle is one of the biggest beneficiaries of this, and he has taken full advantage of it this season

“It’s a very good offense from a scheme standpoint,” Vic Fangio said. “(Shanahan) does a good job of calling the game. They marry their run game and their passing game together very well. Even if they were to put in a new play, new running play, they’re going to have some form of play-action pass off of it.”

Discipline will be of the upmost importance against play-action. The Broncos failed in that regard, and it resulted in 210 yards for Kittle. The Bears had no issue keeping everything in front of them against the Rams, a team even more reliant on play-action. They will slow down the 49ers’ offense if they are able to repeat that discipline.

Possible air-show

Bears Quarterback Mitch Trubisky: SRN Broadcasting

While the 49ers have a young defensive line that features DeForest Buckner, their secondary leaves an awful lot to be desired, even with the addition of Richard Sherman. Though they have performed respectably against the past (13th in yards allowed), the defense has failed to take the ball away, ranking dead last in the NFL with only two interceptions.

Taking care of the football is always a priority, but the 49ers’ inability to take the football away will allow room to be more aggressive and throw the ball into tighter windows. The playbook will likely open up more and we could see coach Matt Nagy at his most creative.

“I think just as far as, you know, an offensive stand point, there’s still things we want to get accomplished,” WR Allen Robinson said. “You know, and continue to try to build this momentum, you know, going into the playoffs.”

We’ve seen what Trubisky can do against defenses that struggle to force turnovers; His two best games came against the Lions and Buccaneers, who are 30th and 24th in interceptions, respectively. He is at his best when playing loose and not concerned about interceptions, and he can very well play like that on Sunday.

Staying focused

Bears coach Matt Nagy: SRN Broadcasting

The Bears have clinched the NFC North and come off a great win over their rival, so the 49ers may be looked at as a letdown spot. The season is not over, and as Nagy put it, resting starters “is not even in the world of consideration for us. We’re trying to win.”

He added Thursday, “I think that’s what separates the good teams from the great teams is they know how to focus each week and not make any game more significant than the other. And that’s where we’re at right now.

“I’ve been fortunate enough to be on other teams where we’ve won division championships,” he said Wednesday. “And it’s nice. It’s important because, you know, it gives you advantages. It gives you a home game in the playoffs… But you can’t be satisfied. And that’s who our guys are.”

The Bears have the edge over the 49ers across the board. San Francisco is simply a lesser team than the Bears and their already precarious situation was worsened with the injury to Jimmy Garoppolo and eventual insertion of Nick Mullens. Their offensive line is 7th in sacks allowed and their receiving corps is average at best. Mullens is young and limited, and the degree of separation between the 49ers’ offense and Bears’ defense is too big for even Kyle Shanahan to overcome. The 49ers can only win this if the Bears make preventable mistakes. Avoid those errors, and this will turn into a warmup for the playoffs.

Follow on Twitter: @crbevins11 @radiomogul 

Hear audio from Matt Nagy, Vic Fangio, Allen Robinson and Roquan Smith

What 2018 Bears vs Rams can teach about today’s NFL

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One question will be on everyone’s mind this Sunday night when the Los Angeles Rams take on the Chicago Bears.

Can you still win with defense?Image result for rams logo

The phrase “defense wins championships” has long been a saying your high school football coach barked at you, or your dad called out from the recliner in the living room. But this notion has been dispelled by today’s NFL, a league in which the three best teams, the New Orleans Saints, Kansas City Chiefs and Los Angeles Rams, produce offensively at an astonishing rate of over 34 points per game. 300-yard passing games have reached a point where anything below is considered an off day for the likes of Drew Brees, Jared Goff and Pat Mahomes II. Teams are increasingly turning towards innovative, offensive-minded head-coaching candidates. Names like Oklahoma’s Lincoln Riley and former Texas Tech head coach Kliff Kingsbury are popular names in NFL circles that have become open to blurring the line between college and pro-style offenses. Primarily-shotgun offenses, jet-motion, an increasing reliance on play-action; these are the new norms of the NFL. As evidenced by the standings, the top of the league’s food chain shares a common thread: Explosive offense.

Super Bowl 52 was a 41-33 fireworks display that saw over 1,000 yards of total offense, despite the fact that the Philadelphia Eagles came in with a defense that was fourth in the league in points allowed per game. Though they lost, the Patriots’ offensive explosion in Super Bowl 52 and their AFC Championship victory over a historically great Jacksonville Jaguars’ defense foreshadowed what was to come in 2018: Teams don’t win with defense; the top five defenses in defense-adjusted value over average, or DVOA*, are a combined 29-31 (Bears, Broncos, Bills, Ravens and Jaguars), while the top five offenses by the same metric are 47-12-1 (Chiefs, Rams, Chargers, Saints and Steelers). The evidence that an offensive-first philosophy is the only way to keep up in today’s NFL is overwhelming, and it was why hires the hires of Frank Reich and Matt Nagy were lauded, while defensive-minded hirees like Steve Wilkes and Matt Patricia were met with raised eyebrows.

And yet, the Cowboys still beat the Saints on Thursday night last week.

It was bizarre to watch the Saints muster only 10 points and lose to a flawed Cowboys team. There probably wasn’t anyone out there who thought 13 points would be enough to beat the Saints, but the relentless defensive effort Dallas trotted out was just that, and it surely put a smile on the face of your uncle who spent 25 minutes complaining about “what happened to the game he loved” at Thanksgiving dinner.

Bears coach Matt Nagy. Photo: SRN Broadcasting

The Cowboys’ victory raised the question we started with: Can you win with defense in today’s NFL? Is it a sustainable model? We won’t truly find out until the Lombardi Trophy is hoisted, but Sunday Night Football’s matchup with the Rams and Bears may further illuminate the answer to that question.

This past offseason, Bears GM Ryan Pace appeared to take a page from a growing trend the Rams helped start: Pair your young quarterback with a savvy, play-calling head coach. It took only one year for Rams head coach Sean McVay to turn Jared Goff from an all-time bust to top-10 NFL quarterback. Like the Rams, the Bears surrounded their young quarterback, Mitch Trubisky, with as many weapons as possible, from coaches to personnel. It was clear this team was to be built around the quarterback.

That philosophy didn’t stop Pace from building an elite defense, however, and he completed that construction with the trade for Khalil Mack. The Bears’ defense has blossomed into a top-flight unit that leads the league in takeaways and defensive DVOA, and is top five in sacks, team defense and points allowed. The offense, on the other hand, has shown flashes but has yet to truly set into a groove.

Nagy talked about the growing process on Thursday: “I’m learning too. I’m not where I was, football-relationship wise with Mitch right now… than I was in year five with Alex (Smith). That takes time. When you get to that point, that’s when the well-oiled machine starts rolling.”

The Bears may end up like the Seattle Seahawks did, in that they rode a dominant defense until their quarterback became the team’s identity. For now, however, this is a team defined by its defense, not its offense that is ranked 20th in yards per game and DVOA.

The Bears should still be able to move the ball though. The Rams’ defense, despite having one of the NFL’s best players in Aaron Donald, is vulnerable; they are 18th in yards allowed per game, 19th in points allowed per game, and 15th in defensive DVOA, just a tick above league average. The Bears appear to be getting Mitch Trubisky back this week, and the added layer he brings will let Nagy call the plays needed to get this offense going.

“It’s like riding a bike,” Nagy said. “You just get right back onto it, so it’ll be interesting to see as he continues to feel good, how that works with the players too.”

The real strength of the Rams lies in their second-ranked offense. Not much can be said about the Rams’ offense that hasn’t already been said. Sean McVay, at the young age of 32, has transformed Jared Goff and Todd Gurley into two of the biggest weapons in the NFL. He is one of the best play-callers in the league and he knows how to exploit any weakness he sees. Goff executes the offense to perfection and Gurley’s versatility as a rusher and receiver makes him the focal point of an offense that shreds teams off play-action.

Chicago Bears DC Vic Fangio – photo by SRN Broadcasting

Defensive coordinator Vic Fangio summed it up: “They got really good scheme, really good players, really good play-caller. It’s a tough assignment, no doubt about it. But we got to show up.

“I’ve never bought into you know, there was a couple questions in here a couple weeks ago after the 54-51 game that, ‘Is this the new way of the NFL?'” Fangio later said before a chuckle. “You guys heard my answers. That was the talk of the week.”

This all gets us back to an extension of our earlier question. Does the Bears’ elite defense place them in the NFL’s elite? This musing applies to any defensive-first team, not just the Bears. How viable of a model is this? It wasn’t enough for the Jaguars last year. We won’t truly know the answer to this question until the playoffs, but Sunday will at the very least give us some clarity. Signs have pointed to defense not being an answer to sustainable success. But if the Cowboys could put a boot on the Saints, perhaps the Bears can do the same to the Rams. Maybe their defense can, in fact, carry them on a deep playoff run.

Maybe defense can still win championships.

 

*DVOA: An advanced metric created by Football Outsiders that rates a team’s efficiency by measuring the success on a given play compared to the league average.

Follow on Twitter: @crbevins11 @radiomogul

Hear audio from Matt Nagy, Vic Fangio, Trey Burton and Roquan Smith

2018 Chicago Bears @ New York Giants Preview

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The 2018 Chicago Bears, now 8-3 and still in first place in the NFC North, travel East to the Big Apple to face the New York Giants. The Giants’ struggles have been apparent this year, but, like any team, they pose their own set of unique challengesImage result for new york giants logo

Rushing a weak Giants’ offensive line

The Giants’ offensive line remains a glaring weakness in their game, even after the addition of Nate Solder and expulsion of the much-maligned Tre Flowers. They have given up 38 sacks this season, according to FootballOutsiders, which is only one less than the most sacks allowed leaders, the Tennessee Titans. Their adjusted sack rate, measured by dividing the number of sacks by the number of pass plays, is 26th in the NFL at 8.8%, according to FootballOutsiders.

“We know that… they had a history of fair share of sacks,” linebacker Danny Trevathan. “We know that it’s out there for us, but we have to play our ball and get after them. I mean we can’t let them, you know, get on top or even, you know, have room to breathe. We know this team’s capable of coming out here and performing great.”

The dominance of the Bears’ pass rush, on the flip side, cannot be overstated. They have 34 sacks on the year and have forced bad throws with the pass rush. Those forced bad throws have led to their league-leading 20 interceptions. We have seen dreadful, turnover-laden games from Manning in the past, and the Bears’ dominant pass rush combined with their opportunistic secondary may lead to big plays on the defensive side of the ball.

Chicago Bears DC Vic Fangio – photo by SRN Broadcasting

Shutting down Giants playmakers

The Giants feature two of the most electrifying players in the NFL with Saquon Barkley and Odell Beckham Jr. Either of them can turn a short gain into an explosive chunk play. The quickness and top-end speed of Beckham Jr. make him nearly impossible to match up against. He creates separation with his routes speed, but his ball-tracking ability and strong hands mean he really doesn’t even need much separation to come down with the ball.

“He’s really good,” defensive coordinator Vic Fangio said. “You know, the guy’s a tremendous athlete and [he has] great ball skills, as everybody knows. [He’s] really good.”

Saquon Barkley is built like an bull, changes direction like a jackrabbit and runs like a deer. A touchdown is possible anytime he has his hands on the ball, and the Giants love to get it to him. Barkley’s 171 rushing attempts are the seventh-most in the NFL, and his 71 receptions are first among running backs. Those numbers put together gives him 242 touches, good enough for third in the NFL. He has 829 rushing yards and eight rushing touchdowns. Taking him away will be step one, but it’s no easy task.

“It’s going to take all 11 people to stop him,” Fangio said of Barkley. “You know this guy will take any handoff that’s designed to go anywhere, and the ball could end up anywhere. So it’s going to take all 11. This guy’s a really good back. He’s as good as advertised. He’s got speed, power, elusiveness so, he’s everything that he was made out to be.”

Fangio was later asked if there is a particular play he shows the defense to demonstrate how special Barkley is. His response? “Well that’s the problem. There’s about thirty.”

It takes a special unit to stop a player like Barkley, but the Bears’ defense is just that, particularly against the run. The Bears have allowed a league-best four rushing touchdowns this year, and their 80.8 rushing yards allowed per game trails only the Saints. Players will have to swarm to Barkley, who has gained 73% of his rushing yards after contact. Taking away Barkley will force Manning to throw, and if they limit both Barkley and Beckham Jr’s impacts, the Giants’ offense should be in for a long day.

The quarterback question

Chicago Bears head coach Matt Nagy: SRN Broadcasting

Quarterback Mitch Trubisky’s availability will remain a question until he is on the field, playing at 100%. He did not practice Thursday and reportedly has yet to throw a football since sustaining his shoulder injury two weeks ago against the Minnesota Vikings. The odds of him returning this week grow slimmer by the days, which means we’re likely to see Chase Daniel running the show for the second consecutive week.

Daniel was effective in his showing against the Lions, a start in which he went 27-for-37 for 230 yards and two touchdowns. He was in command of the offense throughout the game, and his familiarity with coach Matt Nagy’s system was an apparent strength.

“I’ve had a lot of time with him in the quarterback room,” Nagy said of Daniel. “We’ve talked through a lot of different plays so when you have that, those three years together, essentially, it’s different than three years as a head coach. When you’re in there every day with a guy, you know really where they’re at.”

CBs Janoris Jenkins and Curtis Riley, S Landon Collins and DE Olivier Vernon are the Giants’ standouts on defense. Jenkins can go man-to-man with anyone in the league, and Collins is a balanced safety who is particularly strong at playing in the box against the run. Vernon, despite his struggles this year, has shown in the past that can get to the quarterback, so keeping him off Daniel will be an emphasis this week.

Nagy referred to the Giants’ secondary as a strong suit of their defense, saying, “All four of them, they all kind of have their own ways of playing and we know that, so we want to try and attack them in our own ways that we think we can.”

They are vulnerable, however, ranking 23rd in total yards allowed and 25th in points scored. The Bears’ offense should find success similar to how they did against the Lions if Daniel takes care of the football and executes his coach’s offense.

Follow on Twitter: @crbevins11 @radiomogul

Hear audio from Matt Nagy, Vic Fangio and LB Danny Trevathan

2018 Chicago Bears at Buffalo Bills preview

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The Chicago Bears will travel to Buffalo to play the Bills for the first time since 2010 this Sunday, and with them, they bring the hopes of extending their NFC North lead.

Taking care of business

The Bills’ offense has been abysmal this season. They sit squarely at the bottom of the NFL in passing offense and passing touchdowns and they are 30th in total offense. They have also posted the worst DVOA rating through eight games of any team since 1988. Rookie quarterback Josh Allen, the seventh overall pick, is hurt, as well as the recently added Derek Anderson, meaning Nathan Peterman is likely to trot out Sunday for the Bills.

“We just got to defend their offense, you know, regardless of who’s playing quarterback for them,” defensive coordinator Vic Fangio said. “I know that they like [Peterman] there. You know he did earn the starting job coming out of camp. They pulled him for the rookie [Allen] at some point. And I do know that they have a lot of confidence in him, and we got to be able to defend their offense. And he’s a capable player.”

Despite the respect Fangio shows to him, Peterman’s statistics show low completion rates, minimal offensive production and a bevy of interceptions thrown. The Bears’ defense has eleven interceptions on the year, good enough for second in the NFL. This is an opportunistic bunch that has seen improved takeaway ability by players like Kyle Fuller and Eddie Jackson, and should add to that mark against a quarterback who has four interceptions in two games of extended play.

Regardless of whether or not Khalil Mack plays, the Bears’ defense is more than capable of taking it to the Bills, a team that has struggled to move the ball in any sense this season. If the Bears play their game, the Bills’ offense, like the Jets’, will struggle to get anything going. Sound tackling and forcing an inadequate quarterback to make throws he can’t make should stymie any offensive momentum.

Chicago Bears head coach Matt Nagy: SRN Broadcasting

A sneaky Bills’ defense

While the offense has struggled mightily this season, the Bills’ defense has played somewhat under the radar. They sit fourth in the league in defensive DVOA* and feature DE Jerry Hughes LB Lorenzo Alexander and CB Tre’Davious White.

“How hard they play is the first thing that stands out,” offensive coordinator Mark Helfrich said. “It doesn’t matter the score. You know, they had a couple tough ones earlier in the year and they were playing their tails off when they were down big. They were playing their tails off when they were up big.

“The edges, obviously with [Hughes] and probably now [Alexander]. They can put a lot of pressure on the quarterback. They’re very exotic but sound in how they rush the pressure and how they attack protections.”

Trubisky has struggled with exotic looks and pressures at times this season. Part of the growing process is learning how to handle misleading looks at the line of scrimmage.

“They’ve been very good for a long time at all their stops defensively so it’s a huge challenge and a unique challenge,” Helfrich said.

Make no mistake, the Bills have a solid defensive group that has been burdened by an incapable offense. A huge part of their gameplan will be to keep Trubisky off balance and prevent him from getting into a rhythm. The short game is how to beat a defense that can rush the passer, as has been seen with teams who find success against the Bears’ defense. Trubisky hitting quick completions early will force the Bills to put more men in coverage than in pass-rush. When that happens, Trubisky will have the time to find chunk plays and really get the ball rolling.

Depth will be tested

Bears offensive coordinator Mark Helfrich: SRN Broadcasting

The Bears look to be without Kyle Long for some time and neither Khalil Mack or Allen Robinson practiced on Thursday. Their defense did well without Mack last week and the same should continue against an opponent inferior to the Jets, but the loss of Long could be more impactful against a stout defensive front like the Bills.

“Harry’s a great teacher,” coach Matt Nagy said of offensive line coach Harry Hiestand. “He knows how to really dive into the details with each player on how their technique is or what he sees with a defensive player, specifically.”

Though Eric Kush is still on the injury report, Nagy said he believes he will be good to go Sunday. Opposite Kush will be rookie James Daniels, a player who has developed nicely since he came to Chicago.

“There’s just a little hesitancy with some of the things he’s done, but very excited about his future,” Helfrich said.

The interior blocking is crucial to the Bears’ inside zone run scheme. How Daniels and Kush step up in Long’s absence will be vital to the Bears’ run game this week, and for the foreseeable future.

*DVOA: An advanced metric created by Football Outsiders that rates a team’s efficiency by measuring the success on a given play compared to the league average.

Twitter: @crbevins11 @radiomogul

Hear audio from Matt Nagy, Vic Fangio and Mark Helfrich:

2018 Chicago Bears vs New England Patriots preview

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The New England Patriots roll into the Windy City this Sunday for a showdown against the Chicago Bears. The Bears, coming off a heart-breaking loss to the Miami Dolphins, will look to avoid losing their second straight in what could be Tom Brady’s final game in Chicago.

Rushing BradyImage result for new england patriots logo

The Patriots present the same daunting task as always: Tom Brady. Perhaps the greatest quarterback of all time, Brady has never lost to the Bears, compiling a perfect 4-0 record against them.

There’s a mystique about Brady that, on its own, can make coaches outthink themselves. We saw this happen to the Jacksonville Jaguars in the AFC Championship when they went against their gameplan and stumbled to a second-half collapse.

“That’s that whole chasing the cat’s tail thing,” coach Matt Nagy said. “And all of a sudden you start outthinking yourself. You know, ‘What the heck?’ That’s the mystique and that’s what they do.”

“When you don’t go too crazy with that and you balance it and you control what you control, then, in the end, win lose or draw, no matter what, you at least feel good that you approached it the right way.”

The Bears could take a page out of the Broncos’ book. On their way to Super Bowl 50, the Denver Broncos and their vaunted defense knocked the Patriots out of the AFC Championship. Von Miller wrote about it in the Players’ Tribune, saying, “I’m coming from one side, (DeMarcus) Ware from the other, and the defensive tackle gets enough of a push that when (DeMarcus) Ware and I meet in the backfield, Tom has nowhere to go.” There is no doubt Khalil Mack can get pressure from the edge and Akiem Hicks can pressure up the middle. Opposite Mack, Leonard Floyd will have to make an impact to create pressure all around Brady and prevent him from navigating within the pocket.

It should be noted that Khalil Mack did not practice on Wednesday and is listed as day-to-day. It can’t be overstated how crucial his presence is to the Bears’ pass-rush, and by virtue, the Bears’ chances of winning.

Chicago Bears QB Mitch Trubisky: SRN Broadcasting

Tackling in the open field

The Bears struggled to make plays in the open-field against Miami, and those struggles resulted in 274 yards allowed after the catch. The Miami receivers, specifically Albert Wilson, beat them more than Brock Osweiler did.

Bubble screens and the short passing game killed the Bears, as well as their struggles to bring down Frank Gore, uncharacteristic for a defense ranked first in DVOA.

“It wasn’t who we’ve been here in the past, even throughout this stay. It was disappointing and something that’s got to be corrected,” Vic Fangio said.

“Teams have bad days in a lot of ways and that was one of ours.”

The Patriots have an array of weapons that hurt teams in various ways. Julian Edelman is dynamic out of the slot, Josh Gordon is an explosive deep threat and Rob Gronkowski is nearly impossible to cover. They get the ball to their playmakers, further stressing the importance of making fundamental tackles in space.

“We didn’t play as well last game but we’re still confident and we know what we are capable as a team,” linebacker Danny Trevathan said.

The Bears struggled to contain Frank Gore in Miami, so Sony Michel stands to receive plenty of carries. He has overcome a subpar start to become the running back New England envisioned him to be when they drafted him in the first round.  The Bears have one of the best run defenses in the league and containing Michel, yet another weapon in the Patriots’ arsenal, is another step to victory.

Keep the ball rolling on offense

Chicago Bears coach Matt Nagy: SRN Broadcasting

While the Miami loss left a sour taste in fans’ mouths, the game can’t be discussed without bringing up the offense’s success. One of the biggest questions entering Week Six was whether or not Trubisky would build on his Week Four shredding of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. A rough first half drew baited-breaths from watchers but Trubisky settled in once the second half began. Though there were a couple head-scratching throws, Trubisky adjusted to Miami’s exotic looks that had thrown him off in the first half. He threw with anticipation and connected on a couple deep shots to Taylor Gabriel.

“He throws a good deep ball,” Gabriel said. “He throws a real good deep ball. Lot of touch on it. And I feel like we’re only growing from what we already did and what we already kind of put together as in deep balls.”

Trubisky’s next task is to face the defense of the great Bill Belichick. New England’s defense has struggled this season, and their last game against the Kansas City Chiefs was no exception, surrendering 446 yards of offense.

Mahomes filled out the stat sheet, but New England kept him off balance and he didn’t look like the dominant slinger he had been in weeks prior. Quarterbacks generally don’t fare well in their first start against New England, and Belichick is why. He knows how to keep young quarterbacks uncomfortable, and will have something up his sleeve to do so against Trubisky. It is a daunting challenge, but Trubisky has shown to be capable of producing. Sunday will show how ready both he and Nagy are for one of the best minds in the NFL.

Twitter: @crbevins @radiomogul

Hear audio from Matt Nagy, Vic Fangio and Danny Trevathan: