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Jake Arrieta

Can the Green Bay Packers break their losing streak?

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Aaron Rodgers Green Bay on the Weekend Sports Report with Packer Dave and Steve Leventhal

….Cheryl Raye-Stout @Crayestout from WBEZ in Chicago joins us for a discussion of the Bears’ resurgence this season. A long time journalist in Chicagoland, Cheryl also recounts her experiences covering the Bulls during their championship run. Jeff Rich and Dave talk about how can the Green Bay Packers break their losing streak, and other key NFL games. Jeff and Steve highlight the top college football contests. Lastly, John Poulter updates the hockey season and gives his thoughts on the baseball postseason awards.

Hear interviews with Mike McCarthy, Julius Peppers, Adrian Peterson, Vikes Offensive Coordinator Norv Turner, John Fox, Jay Cutler, Brock Osweiler of the Broncos, Larry Fitzgerald, and Bengals coach Marvin Lewis.

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Arrieta is the Cubs’ Guy to Lean On

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Arrieta on his body of work "it's good."
Arrieta on his body of work “it’s good.”

Jake Arrieta’s walkup song is Lean On by Major Lazer and DJ Snake. Listen above.

“Do you recall, not long ago
We would walk on the sidewalk Innocent, remember?
All we did was care for each other
But the night was warm
We were bold and young
All around the wind blows
We would only hold on to let go
Blow a kiss, fire a gun
We need someone to lean on
Blow a kiss, fire a gun
All we need is somebody to lean on
Blow a kiss, fire a gun
We need someone to lean on
Blow a kiss, fire a gun
All we need is somebody to lean on”

That’s who Jake Arrieta is.  He is the guy the Cubs can lean on.  And they need it.  A squad filled with youth, full of life and energy needs that guy.  The guys who can keep it all together.  The guy who is unfazed by the past and is able to step into the present.  The guy who sets the mental and physical fitness standard on the club.  The guy who focuses on his swing too. The guy who doesn’t let the Windy City and the Cubbie Blue get to him. The guy who shows up early on days he’s not pitching. The guy who insists on having his wife and children accept his honors with him at Wrigley following his no-hitter. The guy who takes things seriously, but not too seriously.  His teammates love him for it, his manager loves him for it, the fans love him for it.  He has been the guy for all of them to lean on.

Jake Arrieta’s season, first half, and especially his second half has been one of dominance.  He put up very good numbers in 2014, numbers that most said he wouldn’t be able to replicate. After proving them wrong, getting off to a good start in the first half of the season, he was snubbed at the all-star break, though it should be noted that the competition for all-star pitching was of high and contentious quality.  Proving a majority wrong once again, Arrieta posted the best ERA in baseball in the second half of the season, an incredible .75. In addition, he has ended the season with 12 consecutive wins.

Arrieta has a remarkable stat sheet. The wins: he is 22-6, with the most wins in all of baseball.  Twenty wins is a feat, one he graciously completed under the home lights and vibrant crowd of Wrigley.  Not phoning in two subsequent starts and getting to the 22 number is just exceptional.  The ERA: 1.77.  This is not only second-best in the league this year to Greinke’s 1.68, but like Greinke’s, it is one of the lowest in the last 25 years. The strikeouts: 236.  Arrieta is second in the National League to Clayton Kershaw’s outrageous 294 strikeouts.  Other stats: He and Kershaw lead the National League and are second only to Dallas Keuchel in innings pitched with 229 over 32 starts.  He has the second highest (to Greinke) winning percentage, of .786 in the majors-but Arrieta has two more starts and 7 more decisions.  He has four complete game shutouts, the most in the majors.  He’s only given up 5.9 hits over nine innings, the best in the majors.  He and Greinke have the most quality starts over the season.  However, he does have the longest streak of quality starts this year, at 20, edging Kershaw’s total last year.  Oh, and Arrieta has a no-hitter against the team Greinke and Kershaw play for by the way.  Don’t forget that one on the resume.

The marquee stats are impressive.  The ERA, the wins, the strikeouts, the ones that are really used to determine the Cy Young award are quality.  However in a race as close as this one, see below,

Kershaw: ERA 2.16, W/L 16-7, SO 294
Greinke: ERA 1.68, W/L 18-3, 192
Arrieta: ERA 1.77, W/L 22-6, 236

a couple things happen.  First, the question as to who is best all around and dominant is asked.  Arrieta is either first or second in the NL in all three categories.  Both the Dodgers making bids are third or worse in one of the three major categories.  The question that follows is as to what the award, in this case, the Cy Young, is supposed to represent.  It is defined many ways, but one definition applicable for the voters is the “annual award given to the most outstanding pitcher in each of the major leagues.” Now Arrieta is arguably the best/most well-rounded, and also arguably the most outstanding, just see the paragraph above.  There are a great deal of categories, almost all of them, in which Arrieta stands at or above the two Dodgers as well.  There are a number of “league bests” and “majors bests” that he has that the other two don’t.  These just pad his bid for the Cy Young for voters looking for some other deciding factors.  

Arrieta is a large reason for the Cubs success this season, and not just in the 22 wins he has accumulated.  In addition, Arrieta is also a large reason for the Cubs never hitting any slumps or prolonged speed bumps.  The Cubs never dropped more than five in a row this season, and allowed themselves to be swept in a series only twice.  Arrieta stands as a bright spot every five starts, regardless of what else is going on around him and the club.  This is evident in his ability to go 10-1 after a Cubs loss over the 2015 regular season.  So not only is he good, but he is consistently good under pressure, when he is the only thing stopping a young, mentally green, potentially vulnerable squad from spiraling into a tailspin of a losing streak, one that certainly can’t be afforded in a powerhouse of a division like that of the NL Central.

Though, it is all but announced to most that Bryce Harper will be named NL MVP with his impressive offensive stat line.  The all-star and young-blood, new, attractive face of baseball carries a .331 average (2nd in the NL), 42 home runs (tied for first in the NL), 99 RBIs (tied for fourth), and 117 runs.  However, again, if one thinks about how “MVP” is defined, what is often used in interpretation is the value, hence most valuable part of MVP, but how much value can you possess when your team doesn’t make it to the playoffs?  Not that Harper isn’t incredibly dominant, talented, or even the “best player” in the national league at this given moment, but rather, even with his talent, has he been as vital and successful in contributing to his team’s success as Arrieta has and is (and there still is an is because his team is headed to the playoffs)?  Single-handedly fighting off slumps, responsible, at least half responsible for 22 of his club’s 96 wins, and just out-pitching batters and situations he faces in the most high-stakes, pressurized time (down the stretch), in the toughest division (NL Central), and uplifting, a “cursed” (durn billy goat be damned) team, all sound like very, very, valuable things to me. It’s up to the voters, again, to decide if he is the most valuable in the National League.

Two things are for sure:

It is sure as hell nice to see good things happening to good people.  Good fathers and good husbands and good teammates with good work ethic and discipline don’t always see the success Arrieta is seeing.

Regardless of his ability to claim one or two regular season awards, Arrieta has been everything for the Cubs.  The epitome of a “rock.”  No matter if it is someone blowing a kiss, or firing a gun, Arrieta is the Cubs’ some one to lean on.  

 

It’s (Un)official: Cubs Season a Success

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It is, unofficially, safe to say that regardless as to how the rest of the season goes, the Cubs have had a successful season.  With the understanding that the team was built for success further down the road, most likely in the 2016 and 2017 seasons, the Cubs have done enough to garner such an evaluation.  However, with the overwhelming success the Cubs have had this summer, it appears that everyone from fan to front-office man for the Cubs could not have projected this level of success.

JoeMaddonTheoEpsteinFirst, one can take a glimpse at the roster. The big names most expected to be everyday contributors surprised many by not being there, due to injury or other extenuating circumstances.  Baez has been in triple-A most of the year and upon being called up in early September, has done well, but still lacks a robust home run line many thought would accompany him on his trip from Iowa. Luckily, his strikeout totals have not followed him either.  Soler has been hurt and is questionable to return for the playoffs.  His season also has been overshadowed by the shocking success of the rest of the roster.  Though the belief in Starlin Castro had begun to wane in the minds of fans, usually due to a citation of the lack of discipline he has displayed at times throughout his career, few thought he would struggle as much as he has.  However, the unexpected success on both sides of the ball from Addison Russell has picked up the slack, allowing a motivated Castro to step up in pinch-hitting and second base spots.  Though many were excited about Rizzo, few thought his strikeout totals would be so much lower, his RBI counts would be so much higher, and his physicality would improve at such a clip, as evident from his increase in stolen bases and growing defensive prowess. Chris Coghlan’s resurgence since his rookie of the year performance in 2009, along with his positional flexibility has pleasantly surprised many as well. To the surprise of many fans who knew nothing but the name “Bryant” for the first half of the season, whom also, without a doubt, has made big-time plays in big-time moments, Kyle Schwarber has impressed, heavily.  His maturity at the plate combined with his willingness to play a new position, Schwarber has blown away many Northsiders of both the devout and casual persuasions. The biggest shocker though, has been of course, Jake Arrieta.  Lester was supposed to be the ace.  Arrieta was supposed to be good, but most students of the game and of the Cubs, thought that he could still be good but it would be nearly impossible to continue his success from last season. The fact that he has thrown a no-hitter is a(n amazing) thing in itself.   The fact that he has the most wins in the National League and has a sub-two ERA are things of a different type, a Cy Young (at least conversationally) type.  

When looking for other reasons as to how the Cubs have recorded success, you can look at the schedule.  The team has won almost twice as many series as they have lost. In addition, they have swept seven opponents including the likes of potential playoff squad, the New York Mets (swept them twice, once in a four-game series), their divisional rival Milwaukee Brewers (twice, once in a four-game sweep), and defending World Series champs, the San Francisco Giants (four-game sweep), four times in which they completed a four-game sweep. But equally impressive is the fact that they have only been swept twice all season.  Furthermore the Cubs have had many little win-streaks of anywhere from four to nine games throughout the season with their longest losing streak totalling five.  Despite their ability to stack wins, the Cubs really haven’t been streaky in their losses.  The boys in blue haven’t collectively been in a legitimate slump this season, despite a roster filled with relative inexperience.  A testament to Joe Maddon’s managerial talent, the Cubs resistance to stringing losses together is an especially impressive feat due to fact that the pressure is always on in the NL Central.   

This aversion to spiraling out of control could help them weather any storms that come their way in the playoffs. The problem presumably will be winning the one-game playoff. The hope is that Arrieta will make that if not easy, at least a little easier. If the Cubs do fall short though, that’s what it will be called, “falling short.”  Things will have “gotten in the way” of their success.  The Cubs overachieving narrative, juxtaposed with the youth of their roster makes them a squad with potential, which is why this year has been and will continue to be identified as a successful one, regardless of the final outcome.  Because this is a team with “potential.” People weren’t expecting this, so the pleasant surprise is enough success to appease most involved parties.  The unfortunate flipsides of potential, prospects, and unexpected success are the expectations that accompany them.  With the pressure on from defending World Series champs, good teams like the Nationals, and divisional monsters like Pittsburg and St. Louis, the Cubs know something about stress.  But the stress of being booed for flyouts, one-run innings, and being on the other side of all those one-run, or walk-off decisions, might be a different kind of pressure than the Cubs are used to, one from an expecting fanbase.   So for now, the Cubs will bask in their success this season, but one hopes that Maddon, Epstein, and Hoyer continue to be as savvy as they have been, as they have their biggest season in at least a decade coming up next year, one characterized by expectations galore.  

Inexperience At Its Best….and Its Worst: The Cubs Down the Stretch

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The perfect example of the culture change in Chicago came on a Monday evening.  The Cubs gave up their three run lead to fall behind the Rockies one run, 8-7 in the top of the ninth.  With Dexter Fowler on first, two outs, up came Kris Bryant to bat.  For everyone working in the ballpark, who pined for their beds after the boys in blue gave up a 3-run lead in the top of the 9th, rather than those enjoying or playing the game, there were no thoughts of a walk, single, or even double.  KB’s at-bat was either going to be tallied as a K or a HR.  When Axford dealt a poorly placed breaking ball for his second pitch to Bryant, the recently struggling rookie third basemen teed off.  His shot to just right of center led to a lemon lime gatorade bath (which one can be nearly sure he much preferred over fellow Vegas native and blossoming talent, Bryce Harper’s chocolate sauce fate).

That’s what youth is, that’s what the Cubs are and are going to be in the playoffs.  Either a strikeout or a home run in the bottom of the ninth, two outs, winning run at the plate.  The Cubs have the potential to knock this roster experiment out of the park or watch it pass by and try again, next game, next season.  

Inexperience is not an excuse.  Or rather,  it’s the wrong articulation. “Inexperience” is a way of explaining a youthful group’s inability to perform in higher pressure situations.

Kris Bryant hasn’t been in high pressure situations before, at least not on this stage.  Kyle Schwarber is good, but he’s never felt this kind of pressure before.  Russell is a fielding maven and has been getting significantly better in his low pressure slot at the plate, but he has never been on the big stage either. Soler’s new to the scene. Rizzo, he’s killing it but he’s never been to the playoffs, which have a totally different feel.  Neither have Castro or Arrieta.  There are veterans there, who have been on that stage, including Lester, Ross, Motte, and Heron. There are veteran journeymen like Montero, Coghlan, Denorfia, Fowler, and Hammel. The vets, in theory, bolster the youthful squad with “experience” and “wisdom.”  In reality though, it all comes down to the ability to perform.  

Rookies and prospects are given the benefit of the doubt when they fail in new, big-time scenarios, veterans choke.  The point is, anyone can fail or succeed in such scenarios.  While experience may be an asset for veterans in those situations, at the same time, young players go to the plate with a sense of not knowing any better. They get behind the plate and just battle or in the field and just play. They hear things about the pressure or the situation or the stage but don’t really know what to do with it and so just go out and do what they do. Either way, its about either using the pressure to one’s advantage or not letting it get to them in order to perform.  Thus, if the Cubs fail in this postseason, it won’t be termed as that, it will be rather that something got in the way of their success.  The club is too young to have failed, they just don’t have all the pieces in play yet.  

Furthermore, with the exodus of the era of players highlighted by names like Derek Jeter, baseball in general, this season, with the exceptions of AJ Burnett, pre-injury, Mark Buehrle, Alex Rodriguez, and Albert Pujols, is more focused on the youth. Almost every other big name is 25 years old or younger.  Joc Pederson, Mike Trout, Bryce Harper, Anthony Rizzo, Giancarlo Stanton, Manny Machado, Sonny Gray, Noah Syndergaard, Gerrit Cole, and those like them.  In a period where baseball loves young stars, it appears that the Cubs may be both born under and uplifted by a constellation of them.  

From their young Starlins and starlets, the Cubs have their ups like Kyle Schwarber hitting both game tying and eventual game winning home runs in his hometown of Cincinnati within his first couple days up in the bigs.  Anthony Rizzo, after weathering a rough patch, blasts home runs in four consecutive games or climbing the biggest roll of tinfoil ever made, over a wall and making arguably the best defensive play to grace SCTop10 all season long.  Starlin Castro walking off with a hit at home in extras on back to back nights in Ohio after being demoted to the 7-hole.  Addison Russell compiling a highlight reel of web gems at short while also boosting his batting average in the second half. There’s a 1.02 combined ERA in 10 consecutive starts from Jake Arrieta who is putting up video game numbers as of late.  

And they also have their lows.  Starlin Castro is seriously struggling at the plate, so much so that he has been demoted to the bench, batting sub .240 for the majority of the season.  Kris Bryant, appearing to fall back into habits of his first game up in the majors, is swinging at a lot, a lot of pitches he shouldn’t.  The club, getting swept by the league worst Phillies immediately following the All-Star Break.  They go through bouts of bad or no hitting, lackluster pitching, and unfortunate fielding.  

Joe Maddon is playing a major role, a fun uncle or cool dad figure, mentoring them through their ups and downs, always cool, calm, collected, and focusing on the positives or constructively assessing the areas for improvement.  Pensive, laid-back, and detail-oriented, Maddon plays a tremendous role in their previous and potential success.  

In addition to the somewhat surprising fact that the Cubs have the fourth best record in baseball, their ability throughout this season to come back, close, and simply not gift wrap wins to other teams has been tremendous compared to years past. They lead the league in one-run decisions and walk-off wins. But beyond that, to put it in a metric that Chicagoans can better understand: fewer people, much fewer people leave when the score is 3-2, 6-5,  9-8 or even 5-3 in the bottom of the ninth, god forbid. It’s finally exciting baseball in the Cubbie blue pinstripes.  

What will surely be determined either down the stretch or in the playoffs, is whether or not the Cubs will realize their potential or learn from their insufficiencies.  And essentially, what will eventually lead to the possible faltering of the Cubs is their inability to be consistently good.  They might have great moments and they might have bad moments but being consistently good may be the issue.  They have the talent to stick with anybody through 8 ½ innings, but down the stretch, when it counts, really counts, at the bottom of the ninth with two outs, for the win, will they belt a home run or just strike out?